With the final quarter of 2025 on the horizon, strategic planning becomes paramount for oleic acid producers. A forward-looking analysis of feedstock cost drivers is no longer a luxury but a core necessity for protecting margins in a highly dynamic market.

Anticipating these market movements is at the heart of what we do at Tradeasia International. We provide our partners with the data-driven insights and procurement agility needed to make informed purchasing decisions well ahead of major market shifts.

The Energy Echo: Why Crude Oil Is Calling the Shots

To understand where palm feedstock prices are heading, one must first look to the global energy complex. The strong positive correlation between Brent crude oil and CPO prices, holding steady at approximately 0.8 over the past year, remains the single most important leading indicator. With Brent crude currently trading in a stable range around $87 per barrel, it has established a firm price floor for CPO. This price support is further cemented by Indonesia's unwavering B35 biofuel mandate, which consistently diverts over 13 million metric tons of CPO from the global market annually, preventing significant price dips.

A Look Ahead: Projecting Your Q4 Feedstock Costs

Given these powerful underlying drivers, our forecast for Q4 2025 places CPO prices in a trading range of $930 to $1,060 per metric ton. For oleic acid manufacturers, this translates to a projected baseline feedstock cost of between $2,325 and $2,650 per ton of finished product. Our market desk emphasizes that while forecasts provide a strategic range, the key to optimal procurement in Q4 will be agility—the ability to execute purchases at key price dips, a capability we work to empower our clients with. As industry analysis suggests, the era of cheap spot purchasing seems to be on hold, making a proactive and informed strategy essential for the months ahead.

 

Sources:

  1. J.P. Morgan Research - Oil Price Forecasts for 2025 and 2026

  2. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Short-Term Energy Outlook

  3. Oleochemicals Asia - Navigating the Oleochemicals Market Amidst Global Economic Shifts