Market Insight
06 January 2026
Feed Ingredients
Fish meal remains one of the most important protein ingredients in global feed markets. Produced mainly from small pelagic fish such as anchovy, sardine, mackerel, and pilchard, fish meal delivers a high concentration of digestible protein, essential amino acids, omega-3 fatty acids, and trace minerals. These nutritional characteristics make it a critical input for aquaculture, poultry, and livestock feed formulations.
In 2026, fish meal occupies a challenging position within global supply chains. Demand continues to rise alongside the expansion of aquaculture, particularly in Asia-Pacific, while supply growth remains constrained by natural resource limits and regulatory oversight. This imbalance places sustained upward pressure on prices and increases volatility across international markets.
Fish meal prices entered 2026 at elevated levels following a steady upward trend throughout 2025. By November 2025, global reference prices for standard fish meal grades reached around USD 1,790 per metric ton on a cost and freight basis, reflecting a year-on-year increase of roughly 12 percent. Prices recovered significantly from the lows observed in early 2024 and established a higher structural baseline.
Throughout 2025, prices increased gradually rather than sharply, supported by consistent aquaculture demand and tightening inventories. Monthly price gains averaged around 1 to 1.5 percent, indicating steady market tightening rather than speculative spikes. This trend continued into early 2026, reinforcing expectations that prices would remain firm even during seasonal supply improvements.
Regional price behavior varied. China experienced strong price momentum toward the end of 2025 as import demand accelerated, influencing broader Asia-Pacific markets. India and Southeast Asia saw supportive price pressure driven by expanding aquaculture activity and import dependence. European and North American markets displayed more stable pricing due to long-term contracts and mature demand patterns, though they remained aligned with global price levels.
Overall, short-term fluctuations linked to fishing seasons and inventory changes continue to occur. However, the longer-term trend points toward a higher price floor compared with pre-2023 levels, reflecting structural changes in supply and demand.
Fish meal production remains heavily dependent on wild fish catches, particularly anchovy from Peru. Peru alone accounts for roughly one-fifth of global fish meal output in average years, giving it outsized influence over global pricing.
For 2026, Peru authorized a southern zone anchovy fishing quota of approximately 251,000 tonnes for the first half of the year. This decision followed strong catch performance in 2024 and stable results in 2025, supported by favorable ocean conditions and effective fisheries management. These quota announcements play a central role in shaping market expectations and procurement strategies.
Beyond Peru, production growth has been distributed across several regions. According to industry data, cumulative fish meal production through late 2025 increased by around 7 percent year on year, with contributions from Chile, India, Scandinavia, and selected Asian producers. While this diversification reduces dependence on a single origin, it does not fundamentally resolve supply constraints.
Wild fish stocks remain close to sustainable harvesting limits. Climate variability, particularly El Niño and La Niña cycles, continues to affect fish distribution and catch predictability. Ocean warming and shifting migration patterns introduce uncertainty that feeds directly into price volatility. As aquaculture demand grows faster than supply, structural tightness is expected to persist beyond 2026.
Aquaculture accounts for more than 90 percent of global fish meal consumption, making it the dominant demand driver. Carp farming represents the largest share, followed by shrimp and other crustaceans, with marine finfish contributing a smaller but higher-value segment.
China remains the central force in global fish meal demand, representing close to 60 percent of consumption. Growth in Chinese aquaculture continues in 2026, supported by government food security initiatives and modernization of farming practices. Inland carp production remains strong, while premium marine species such as grouper, sea bass, and pompano expand at faster rates. These trends sustain high import demand despite efforts to increase domestic fish meal production.
India and Vietnam also contribute significantly to demand growth. Vietnam’s shrimp industry remains highly feed-intensive, while India’s aquaculture sector continues to expand rapidly across both freshwater and coastal systems. Indonesia, Thailand, and other Southeast Asian countries show similar patterns, collectively forming a high-growth demand region.
Demand from poultry and livestock feed remains secondary but relevant. Poultry production continues to expand across Asia-Pacific, supporting steady inclusion of fish meal in specialized feed formulations. Swine demand is more cyclical, with reduced pig herds in China during 2026 limiting fish meal use in pig feed, though recovery is expected in subsequent years.
Fish meal prices are influenced not only by raw material availability but also by production costs. Fuel and energy expenses play a major role due to the energy-intensive nature of drying and processing fish. Energy price volatility directly affects production economics, particularly in regions with higher electricity costs.
Processing efficiency has improved gradually through better equipment and waste heat recovery systems. However, aging infrastructure in some producing regions limits further cost reductions. Labor costs and compliance requirements add additional pressure, particularly where regulatory standards are tightening.
These cost factors support elevated pricing by limiting the scope for producers to absorb rising expenses. Cost increases tend to pass through the supply chain, affecting feed manufacturers and ultimately aquaculture producers.
Asia-Pacific remains the largest consumption hub for fish meal. China dominates imports, followed by countries such as Vietnam, India, and Japan. Domestic production in China has struggled to keep pace with demand, increasing reliance on imports. By-product fish meal derived from processing waste has grown, though it does not fully offset raw material limitations.
Latin America remains the primary supply region. Peru and Chile continue to shape global availability, with Peru’s quota-based system introducing seasonal uncertainty. Chile contributes smaller but more stable volumes, often positioned as premium supply due to sustainability certifications.
Europe and North America represent mature markets with strong emphasis on quality and traceability. Demand is concentrated in salmon and high-value aquaculture, where certified sustainable fish meal is often required. This focus supports price premiums and limits substitution.
Sustainability requirements increasingly shape fish meal markets. Certification schemes such as IFFO RS and MSC influence sourcing decisions, particularly in Europe and North America. Certified material typically commands higher prices due to limited availability and compliance costs.
Regulatory changes to shipping classification in 2026 have simplified logistics requirements for fish meal, reducing some transport complexity. However, new antioxidant standards introduce additional quality control steps for producers. Overall, regulatory impacts on pricing remain secondary to supply and demand fundamentals.
Climate variability remains a key risk factor. Disruptions linked to ocean temperature changes can reduce catches with little warning, reinforcing market volatility and encouraging buyers to maintain higher inventories.
Fish meal faces increasing competition from alternative protein sources. Plant-based proteins such as soybean meal and rapeseed meal offer significant cost advantages and are widely used as partial substitutes in feed formulations. These alternatives are most competitive in price-sensitive markets, particularly in Asia.
Insect-based proteins are gaining attention due to sustainability benefits and promising nutritional profiles. However, production scale remains limited, and costs are higher than plant-based options. Their impact on fish meal demand in 2026 remains modest, with greater influence expected later in the decade.
Substitution trends are strongest in developing markets where feed costs are critical. In contrast, quality-focused markets continue to rely on fish meal for performance and consistency.
Looking beyond 2026, fish meal markets are expected to face increasing supply pressure. Global production growth remains limited, while aquaculture demand continues to expand. This imbalance is likely to result in tighter availability and higher price volatility from 2028 onward.
Feed manufacturers and producers are responding by diversifying supply sources, improving feed efficiency, and investing in alternative proteins. Larger, vertically integrated players are better positioned to manage volatility, while smaller operators may face margin pressure.
Fish meal prices in 2026 reflect a structurally tight market shaped by constrained supply, steady aquaculture demand, and rising production costs. While short-term fluctuations continue, the broader trend points toward sustained firmness and elevated price baselines.
For market participants, strategic priorities include supply diversification, cost management, and close monitoring of alternative protein developments. As the industry moves toward a period of tighter availability, decisions made in 2026 will play a key role in determining long-term competitiveness and resilience.
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